EPL odds guide
Premier League 1X2 odds: the draw belongs in the comparison
Compare home, draw and away prices on the same fixture, then calculate a three-outcome bookmaker margin.
Three results, one market
A full-time Premier League 1X2 market has three selections: home win, draw and away win. Leaving out the draw turns it into the wrong market. When comparing bookmakers, identify the same fixture and the same result before comparing decimal prices. A home-win price cannot be ranked against a draw price, even if the numbers are close.
Check the official fixture for clubs, venue and kickoff. Then read the bookmaker's market name and settlement period. Other products such as draw no bet or double chance use different outcomes and belong in separate comparisons.
How the margin calculation works
To estimate the bookmaker's three-outcome margin from decimal odds, take one divided by each of its home, draw and away prices, add those three figures, and subtract one. The result is an overround for that quoted market. It is not a prediction that any individual result will occur, and it is not a measure of your expected return on a chosen bet.
Use all three prices from one bookmaker at one capture time. Mixing the best home price from one book with the best draw and away prices from others calculates a different object: a cross-book set of quotes. Keep that separate from an individual bookmaker's margin.
Read the draw column before kickoff
The draw often sits visually between the clubs, but it is a complete selection. A useful 1X2 table shows the home, draw and away quotes for each bookmaker and leaves an unavailable selection blank. Recheck any chosen quote at the bookmaker because a displayed price can change or be suspended.
- Confirm the fixture and full-time 1X2 market.
- Compare the same result across bookmakers.
- Use one bookmaker's complete three-price set for its margin calculation.
Worked example
Illustration: one bookmaker quotes home 2.20, draw 3.40 and away 3.30. The implied fractions are 45.45%, 29.41% and 30.30%. Their sum is 105.17% after rounding, so the approximate three-outcome overround is 5.17%. These are hypothetical prices, not a current Premier League market.
Illustrative numbers for explaining the calculation. They are not current bookmaker quotes.
Sources and method
The example divides one by each illustrative decimal price, sums the results and subtracts one. Rounding each percentage before adding can move the final hundredth. Official fixtures are used for match identification; bookmaker terms control settlement.
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